As machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly used in medical image analysis, concerns have emerged about their potential biases against certain social groups. Although many approaches have been proposed to ensure the fairness of ML models, most existing works focus only on medical image diagnosis tasks, such as image classification and segmentation, and overlooked prognosis scenarios, which involve predicting the likely outcome or progression of a medical condition over time. To address this gap, we introduce FairTTE, the first comprehensive framework for assessing fairness in time-to-event (TTE) prediction in medical imaging. FairTTE encompasses a diverse range of imaging modalities and TTE outcomes, integrating cutting-edge TTE prediction and fairness algorithms to enable systematic and fine-grained analysis of fairness in medical image prognosis. Leveraging causal analysis techniques, FairTTE uncovers and quantifies distinct sources of bias embedded within medical imaging datasets. Our large-scale evaluation reveals that bias is pervasive across different imaging modalities and that current fairness methods offer limited mitigation. We further demonstrate a strong association between underlying bias sources and model disparities, emphasizing the need for holistic approaches that target all forms of bias. Notably, we find that fairness becomes increasingly difficult to maintain under distribution shifts, underscoring the limitations of existing solutions and the pressing need for more robust, equitable prognostic models.

Despite widespread adoption, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) suffer performance degradation when encountering unfamiliar queries under distribution shifts. Existing methods to improve MLLM generalization typically require either more instruction data or larger advanced model architectures, both of which incur non-trivial human labor or computational costs. In this work, we take an alternative approach to enhance the generalization and robustness of MLLMs under distribution shifts, from a representation learning perspective. Inspired by information bottleneck (IB) principle, we derive a variational lower bound of the IB for MLLMs and devise a practical implementation, Visual Instruction Bottleneck Tuning (Vittle). We then provide a theoretical justification of Vittle by revealing its connection to an information-theoretic robustness metric of MLLM. Empirical validation of multiple MLLMs on open-ended and closed-form question answering and object hallucination detection tasks over 45 datasets, including 30 shift scenarios, demonstrates that Vittleconsistently improves the MLLM's robustness under shifts by pursuing the learning of a minimal sufficient representation.

The application of machine learning (ML) to electroencephalography (EEG) has great potential to advance both neuroscientific research and clinical applications. However, the generalisability and robustness of EEG-based ML models often hinge on the amount and diversity of training data. It is common practice to split EEG recordings into small segments, thereby increasing the number of samples substantially compared to the number of individual recordings or participants. We conceptualise this as a multi-level data generation process and investigate the scaling behaviour of model performance with respect to the overall sample size and the participant diversity through large-scale empirical studies. We then use the same framework to investigate the effectiveness of different ML strategies designed to address limited data problems: data augmentations and self-supervised learning. Our findings show that model performance scaling can be severely constrained by participant distribution shifts and provide actionable guidance for data collection and ML research. The code for our experiments is publicly available online.1

Variations in Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners and acquisition protocols cause distribution shifts that degrade reconstruction performance on unseen data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) offers a promising solution to address this discrepancies. However, previous single-shot TTA approaches are inefficient due to repeated training and suboptimal distributional models. Self-supervised learning methods may risk over-smoothing in scarce data scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Dual-Stage Distribution and Slice Adaptation (D2SA) via MRI implicit neural representation (MR-INR) to improve MRI reconstruction performance and efficiency, which features two stages. In the first stage, an MR-INR branch performs patient-wise distribution adaptation by learning shared representations across slices and modelling patient-specific shifts with mean and variance adjustments. In the second stage, single-slice adaptation refines the output from frozen convolutional layers with a learnable anisotropic diffusion module, preventing over-smoothing and reducing computation. Experiments across five MRI distribution shifts demonstrate that our method can integrate well with various self-supervised learning (SSL) framework, improving performance and accelerating convergence under diverse conditions.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) estimation aims to accurately estimate various TC attributes in real time.

Distribution shifts between training and test data undermine the reliability of deep neural networks, challenging real-world applications across domains and subpopulations. While distributionally robust optimization (DRO) methods like GroupDRO aim to improve robustness by optimizing worst-case performance over predefined groups, their use of a single global classifier can be restrictive when facing substantial inter-environment variability. We propose Multi-Expert Distributionally Robust Optimization (MEDRO), a novel extension of GroupDRO designed to address such complex shifts. MEDRO employs a shared feature extractor with m environment-specific expert classifier heads, and introduces a min-max objective over all m2 expert-environment pairings, explicitly modeling cross-environment risks. This expanded uncertainty set captures fine-grained distributional variations that a single classifier might overlook. Empirical evaluations on a range of standard distribution shift benchmarks demonstrate that MEDRO often achieves robust predictive performance compared to existing methods. Furthermore, MEDRO offers practical inference strategies, such as ensembling or gating mechanisms, for typical scenarios where environment labels are unavailable at test time. Our findings suggest MEDRO as a promising step toward resilient and generalizable machine learning under real-world distribution shifts.

Diffusion models have transformed image synthesis through iterative denoising, by defining trajectories from noise to coherent data. While their capabilities are widely celebrated, a critical challenge remains unaddressed: ensuring responsible use by verifying whether an image originates from a model's training set, its novel generations or external sources. We introduce a framework that analyzes diffusion trajectories for this purpose. Specifically, we demonstrate that temporal dynamics across the entire trajectory allow for more robust classification and challenge the widely-adopted "Goldilocks zone" conjecture, which posits that membership inference is effective only within narrow denoising stages. More fundamentally, we expose critical flaws in current membership inference practices by showing that representative methods fail under distribution shifts or when model-generated data is present. For model attribution, we demonstrate a first white-box approach directly applicable to diffusion. Ultimately, we propose the unification of data provenance into a single, cohesive framework tailored to modern generative systems.

Foundation models pretrained on web-scale data drive contemporary transfer learning in vision, language, and multimodal tasks. Recent work shows that mild label noise in these corpora may lift in-distribution accuracy yet sharply reduce out-ofdistribution generalization, an effect known as catastrophic inheritance. Medical data is especially sensitive because annotations are scarce, domain shifts are large, and pretraining sources are noisy. We present the first systematic analysis of catastrophic inheritance in medical models. Controlled label-corruption experiments expose a clear structural collapse: as noise rises, the skewness and kurtosis of feature and logit distributions decline, signaling a flattened representation space and diminished discriminative detail. These higher-order statistics form a compact, interpretable marker of degradation in fine-grained tasks such as histopathology. Guided by this finding, we introduce a fine-tuning objective that restores skewness and kurtosis through two scalar regularizers added to the task loss. The method leaves the backbone unchanged and incurs negligible overhead. Tests on PLIP models trained with Twitter pathology images, as well as other large-scale vision and language backbones, show consistent gains in robustness and cross-domain accuracy under varied noise levels.

Time series forecasting, which aims to predict future values based on historical data, has garnered significant attention due to its broad range of applications.

Encountering shifted data at test time is a ubiquitous challenge when deploying predictive models. Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods address this issue by continuously adapting a deployed model using only unlabeled test data. While TTA can extend the model's lifespan, it is only a temporary solution. Eventually the model might degrade to the point that it must be taken offline and retrained. To detect such points of ultimate failure, we propose pairing TTA with risk monitoring frameworks that track predictive performance and raise alerts when predefined performance criteria are violated. Specifically, we extend existing monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences to accommodate scenarios in which the model is updated at test time and no test labels are available to estimate the performance metrics of interest. Our extensions unlock the application of rigorous statistical risk monitoring to TTA, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed TTA monitoring framework across a representative set of datasets, distribution shift types, and TTA methods.